Anonymous Gerbil

NFL 2020 Season: The Pandemic Season

In four days, the NFL begins it's 101^st season amidst the worst pandemic since WWI. It's going to be strange, to say the least, but hopefully we can enjoy some football while we're stuck at home.

Week 1

2020 Kickoff Game, 9/10
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, 9/13
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Teamers
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Monday Night Football, 9/14
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Still going to try picks despite everything going on. Keeping it simple in week 1. I like the Chiefs at home and in most situations, but at home following their Super Bowl win against the Texans? Easy (hopefully). I am a certified Phil Rivers skeptic, but the Jaguars appear to be following Miami's lead, and Indy beefed up their defense in the off season, so I'll take my Colts in Week 1. Last pick is the Ravens over the Browns. I'm not sure exactly what to expect from the Ravens after their spectacular crash against the Titans, but the Browns are still the Browns, and John Harbaugh is a good coach.

The most interesting matchup, IMO, is Sunday Night Football with the return of Mike McCarthy against the 2018 NFC Champions. Two teams that have failed to live up to expectations setting their 2020 tone in prime time. Hope it's good. I'd also keep an eye on the Cardinals, who started doing some interesting things on defense toward the tail of last season. If their defense really is ready to play and the offense starts to click, they could be very interesting this year. Plus, they're facing off against the current NFC Champs, and we all remember how the 9ers ended their 2019 season.

Keen readers might notice that this post also appears in another place. I figure I'll keep them both going unless something changes drastically.

I was just trying to figure out if you'd changed your picks between the two posts.

Week 1 - Results

2020 Kickoff Game, 9/10
Houston Texans 20 at Kansas City Chiefs 34

Sunday, 9/13
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at Washington Football Teamers 27
Miami Dolphins 11 at New England Patriots 21
Green Bay Packers 43 at Minnesota Vikings 34
Indianapolis Colts 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Chicago Bears 27 at Detroit Lions 23
Las Vegas Raiders 34 at Carolina Panthers 30
New York Jets 17 at Buffalo Bills 27
Cleveland Browns 6 at Baltimore Ravens 38
Seattle Seahawks 38 at Atlanta Falcons 25
Los Angeles Chargers 16 at Cincinnati Bengals 13
Arizona Cardinals 24 at San Francisco 49ers 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 at New Orleans Saints 34

Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys 17 at Los Angeles Rams 20

Monday Night Football, 9/14
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 at New York Giants 16
Tennessee Titans 16 at Denver Broncos 14

I am so glad we picked up Phil Rivers. It makese so much SENSE Okay, it WAS a divisional game in the Florida heat with no pre-season. There's still time to fix things, but it's a sour start to the season. Glad to see the Chiefs pick was good (and easy), but really happy that it was a good game. Gave me hope for a fun season. The Ravens pick was easier than expected as the Browns are still the Browns.

Your Colts messed up the Jaguars' "Tanking for Trevor" plan in week one.

Week 2

Thursday Night Football, 9/17
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 9/20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Washington Team Footballers at Arizona Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Monday Night Football, 9/21
New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders

This week, I'm taking the 49ers in a bounce back game, the Chiefs as a reliable pick, and the Cardinals as the wild card. I really think Arizona are doing good things on defense, and not enough people have clued into that yet, so with another year of experience under their belts, I like Kingsbury and Murray over Rivera and Haskins,

Other good games should include Bills/Dolphins, Cowboys/Falcons, and Vikings/Colts. The Bills are looking to set their season up right by going 2-0 in the division, while the Dolphins risk 0-2. Everyone else mentioned are trying to shake off the week 1 funk with a perfect opportunity to change the narrative. Saints/Raiders also has potential. Maybe we'll get a Monday night shootout.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ons/games/
FiveThirtyEight's Elo model agrees with your picks: 49ers (63%), Cardinals (68%) and Chiefs (72%). The big favorites that you skipped were Packers (75%) over Lions, Titans (74%) over Jaguars and Bears (73%) over Giants.

Week 2 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 9/17
Cincinnati Bengals 30 at Cleveland Browns 35

Sunday, 9/20
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 at Tennessee Titans 33
Carolina Panthers 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Denver Broncos 21 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26
Los Angeles Rams 37 at Philadelphia Eagles 19
San Francisco 49ers 31 at New York Jets 13
Buffalo Bills 31 at Miami Dolphins 28
Minnesota Vikings 11 at Indianapolis Colts 28
Detroit Lions 21 at Green Bay Packers 42
Atlanta Falcons 39 at Dallas Cowboys 40
New York Giants 13 at Chicago Bears 17
Washington Team Footballers 15 at Arizona Cardinals 30
Kansas City Chiefs 23 at Los Angeles Chargers 20
Baltimore Ravens 33 at Houston Texans 16

Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots 30 at Seattle Seahawks 35

Monday Night Football, 9/21
New Orleans Saints 24 at Las Vegas Raiders 34

Well this was Injury Sunday in the NFL. No word yet on what the final damage will be, but the 9ers appear to have gotten the worst of it. The Giants also (likely) lost Barkley for the season, and a bizarre, last-minute injury to Tyrod Taylor put rookie and 6^th overall draft pick Justin Herbert into a divisional matchup with the Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers lost, but only barely. I'd give it a couple of weeks to see if and how teams game plan for the rookie, but if he holds up, the Chargers might be in good shape.

I probably should have mentioned this sooner, but we have some coaches in hot seats, and things might get hotter after today. The Jets have continued to be a mess under Gase, but giving up an 80-yard rushing touchdown on the first play of the game is just embarrassing. I don't know what the Jets should do, but burning everything to the ground seems like a net positive right now. Speaking of embarrassment, how about Atlanta? Held a strong lead over the Cowboys until they didn't, scored 39 points overall, but still LOST. McCarthy gets his first win in Dallas, and Quinn is still haunted by XLI.

That brings us to Matt Patricia. I saw someone point out this week that Jim Caldwell was fired after a 9-7 season, while Patricia's overall record is 9-24-1, and that isn't a fair comparison. The fair comparison is using Caldwell's overall record of 36-28. So the question is, does Matt Patricia get to 28 L's, or does he get fired sooner? The Lions face the 2-0 Cardinals next week before hosting the Saints, so the job won't be getting easier any time soon.

JustAnEngineer wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:34 am https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ons/games/
FiveThirtyEight's Elo model agrees with your picks: 49ers (63%), Cardinals (68%) and Chiefs (72%). The big favorites that you skipped were Packers (75%) over Lions, Titans (74%) over Jaguars and Bears (73%) over Giants.

Seems like the Bears would have also been a good pick, but I was hesitant to choose the Packers and Titans because those are divisional matchups. Cases in point, the Titans only won by 3, as did the Chiefs, who I took as a pick. Divisional matchups frequently end up closer than expected, if not outright upsets.

Cardinals are solid, though. That defense is legitimately good, and whatever holes they have are getting balanced by the offense. I'll probably be picking them a few times in the coming weeks.

The number of soft tissue injuries (e.g.: hamstring) shows lack of conditioning. Surprisingly, in a season with no OTAs, no exhibition games and very little pre-season practice, the offenses and defense have played well. I can't explain why kicking has been so bad in the first couple of weeks.


The Jaguars are a puzzle. Despite losing their best players, they've looked pretty good. The coaches and players obviously aren't on board with the front office's "Tanking for Trevor" plan. They came very close to being 2-0.

Well offenses/defenses aren't dealing with crowd noise. That is probably an advantage for everyone, even when they're playing at home. It has to be really good for coaches making adjustments between plays. And be careful not to read too much into poor kicking. Special teams are going to be as rusty as anyone else, but the difference is the impact: missed points versus yardage gains/losses. IOW, you remember bad kicks more than good ones.

The Jaguars might be Marrone's doing. Even if the front office is intentionally tanking, they could still be considering a coaching shakeup, which puts Marrone in the hot seat with Quinn and Patricia, which means he has every incentive to win games and keep his job. The players want to show off so they can be valuable trades in the tank