NFL 2020

[superjawes]

Week 10 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 11/12
Indianapolis Colts 34 at Tennessee Titans 17

Sunday, 11/15
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at New York Giants 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Green Bay Packers 24
Washington NAMECHANGE 27 at Detroit Lions 30
Houston Texans 7 at Cleveland Browns 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46 at Carolina Panthers 23
Los Angeles Chargers 21 at Miami Dolphins 29
Denver Broncos 12 at Las Vegas Raiders 37
Buffalo Bills 30 at Arizona Cardinals 32
San Francisco 49ers 13 at New Orleans Saints 27
Seattle Seahawks 16 at Los Angeles Rams 23
Cincinnati Bengals 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers 36

Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens 17 at New England Patriots 23

Monday Night Football, 11/16
Minnesota Vikings 19 at Chicago Bears 13

I don't know if I ever have been or will be as frustrated after a win as I was on Thursday. Sure, short week for the Titans, but otherwise the Colts put on full display some of the strongest parts of the team. Good defensive showing and a Special Teams TD to firmly take control of the division... but I remember the losses we've had, and I still feel like Rivers is under-performing. If he would just trust his coaches, I think our offense would at least be serviceable. Unfortunately, I still think it's a liability against better defenses.

WRT the Cardinals' win, I refer you to this.

[JustAnEngineer]

David Johnson is a very good running back. However, you can get serviceable running backs in the sixth or seventh round or as undrafted free agents without committing to a long-term contract for ridiculous money. DeAndre Hopkins is one of the most elite receivers in football. Those are much harder to come by and they last longer, too.

Bill O'Brien the terrible GM is who got Bill O'Brien the football coach fired.

Maybe the Bills needed to quadruple-cover Hopkins, because triple coverage clearly wasn't enough.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/card ... y-stunned/

[superjawes]

David Johnson is a very good running back. However, you can get serviceable running backs in the sixth or seventh round or as undrafted free agents without committing to a long-term contract for ridiculous money. DeAndre Hopkins is one of the most elite receivers in football. Those are much harder to come by and they last longer, too.

Bill O'Brien the terrible GM is who got Bill O'Brien the football coach fired.

Maybe the Bills needed to quadruple-cover Hopkins, because triple coverage clearly wasn't enough.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/card ... y-stunned/

All respect to Hopkins for that play.

The tweet I linked was from Brett Kollmann, who does film study videos on YouTube (I've probably mentioned him before). He's also a Texans fan, so when he sits down for story time on this subject, his videos are both informative and funny (or heartbreaking if you are also a Texans fan).

Here's the March video about The Trade.
And here's the more recent video where he traces things back to 2017

[superjawes]

(Yes, I know it's late.)

Week 11

Thursday Night Football, 11/19
Arizona Cardinals 21 at Seattle Seahawks 28

Sunday, 11/22
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington No-Namers
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Monday Night Football, 11/23
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I feel like I'm taking some traps this week. First off we have Baltimore, who made everyone question Jackson's MVP status lat time they met. However, I think the Ravens clean themselves up a bit and come out on top. The Chargers should beat the New York Mess, but I recognize how poetic it would be for Gase to get his only win of 2020 against them. My only reservation on Miami is the weather in Denver, but the team just seems well coached enough to handle it. The big trap in my mind, though, is the Steelers. I picked them to WRECK Dallas (with a 3rd string QB) in Week 9, and they made it a close one. I just have a feeling that they have an embarrassing loss coming at some point this season or postseason.

Besides some traps, I am also taking some competitive games, starting with my Colts--specifically the defense--against the Packers in Indy. I also like the Chiefs for a divisional win. Gruden and his Raiders did pull the upset earlier this year--for KC's only loss so far--but this is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes coming out of a bye week, and a win in Vegas would go a long way to making the Chiefs AFC West Champions for the 5th year running.

The only other interesting game for me this week is Falcons/Saints. This would be a New Orleans pick from me if Brees' chest wasn't caved in. We're about to see if Payton's coaching was responsible for Teddy Bridgewater's 5-0 record last year. Winston is a stronger passer, but there's a reason he got shipped out of Tampa. The only thing Atlanta can really accomplish this year is playing spoiler in their final 7 games, so this game is worth watching.

[JustAnEngineer]

FiveThirtyEight's ELO model likes the Steelers as a lock (93%). They're in agreement with you on the Chiefs (71%), Chargers (70%) and Ravens (68%). They also like the Vikings (78%).

[superjawes]

Hill gets start over Winston.

Huh...well that only slightly affects my assessment of Saints/Falcons, but I was not expecting Hill to be the starter.

[superjawes]

Week 11 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 11/19
Arizona Cardinals 21 at Seattle Seahawks 28

Sunday, 11/22
Cincinnati Bengals 7 at Washington No-Namers 20
Atlanta Falcons 9 at New Orleans Saints 24
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 3
New England Patriots 20 at Houston Texans 27
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at Cleveland Browns 22
Detroit Lions 0 at Carolina Panthers 20
Tennessee Titans 30 at Baltimore Ravens 24
New York Jets 28 at Los Angeles Chargers 34
Miami Dolphins 13 at Denver Broncos 20
Dallas Cowboys 31 at Minnesota Vikings 28
Green Bay Packers 31 at Indianapolis Colts 33

Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs 35 at Las Vegas Raiders 31

Monday Night Football, 11/23
Los Angeles Rams 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

I definitely took a couple traps this week. Oh well.

That Colts win was the epitome of how I feel about this team. They are SO GOOD in so many aspects of the game, then they get a dozen offensive holding penalties to send the game into overtime

[superjawes]

Happy Thanksgiving, Everyone

Week 12

Thanksgiving Day, 11/26
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions
Maet Llabtoof Notgnihsaw at Dallas Cowboys
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 11/29
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (MOVED)

Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football, 11/30
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

Going with some bounce-back wins this week. I think the Dolphins take out their frustration on their former head coach (again), the Cardinals fly over the Pats in New England, and the Packers use a prime time game to take control of the NFC North. I'm also taking my Colts in a need-to-win game over the Titans in Indy, and the very good Chiefs over overrated Bucs. Besides the Colts, this is probably my most dangerous pick of the week, but it's the Chiefs. They've been rock solid for 3 years now. I also feel ashamed to pick the Giants over the Bengals, but Cincinnati were struggling before losing the #1 pick for the season (possibly more). I expect the Giants to get a feel good win here before losing the next four straight (@SEA, ARI, CLE, @BAL).

Okay, after consideration, I'm also going to take the Seahawks on MNF. I will absolutely take Wilson over Wentz in a shootout situation, and I doubt either team presents a strong defense.

Thanksgiving gives us an odd bunch of games to watch. First, we'll see two bad teams bungling about in Detroit. Just kick back and enjoy the mess, I guess. The second features worse teams, but the game is...actually important... Whoever wins will get to lead the NFC East (with a whopping 4 wins), even if it's only for a few days. Finishing up the day we have Baltimore and Pittsburgh, which actually should could be pretty good. It's another divisional matchup, but with two teams that actually deserve to be in the playoffs.

If you need games to watch on Sunday, I think Chargers/Bills will be solid, and Saints/Broncos has potential, too. I don't know what the weather is looking like in Denver that day, but the Saints will be interesting to watch for a few weeks while they figure out the QB situation. Bears/Packers should also be a good game, seeing as it's the oldest NFL rivalry in prime time. If you want to join me in a stressful watch, tun into Titans/Colts. Both teams are 7-3 going in, so the winner takes the lead in the AFC South. The Colts can move ahead with a tiebreaker, or the Titans can split the series before heading down the final stretch. I picked the Colts to win, but that was 50% based on the previous meeting and 50% reckless optimism. I might have to lock up the bourbon before the game starts.

EDIT: Positive COVID tests has resulted in the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game being postponed to Sunday afternoon.

[JustAnEngineer]

FiveThirtyEight's ELO model likes your picks of the Dolphins (70%), Packers, (69%), Seahawks (68%), Chiefs (66%), Giants (65%) and Colts (60%). ELO likes the Browns (83%), Bills (77%) and Vikings (71%) even more, but the model and Las Vegas oddsmakers say that the up-and-coming Cardinals are underdogs (48%) in Foxboro.

[JustAnEngineer]